Just when you thought it was safe to get on with life …. we’re off to the polls again! This time because Theresa May has called a general election on 8 June 2017. So how’s it going to pan out this time round? Of all the elections we’ve had this one looks the safest to call. The Tories will walk it and win by a mile and that’s not because I’m a Tory!
Labour are committing slow hari-kari and have failed to learn from the fact that even Ed Miliband’s socialism wasn’t for the majority of Britain. Rather than tone down their message they’ve offered us Jeremy Corbyn! It’s like saying ‘You don’t like curry. How about trying Vindaloo?’ Whilst they will still win the Labour heartlands, it won’t be the margin their used to.
The Lib Dems may just experience a dead cat bounce and see gains of 200-300%. After the 2015 debacle where they only secured 9 seats, there is only one way to go! They are moving fast to occupy the Remain territory and despite the fact that no-one I know could point out leader Tim Farron in a line out, they will make gains against Labour and possibly even some of the Conservative’s marginal seats.
UKIP has a month to rebrand itself but for now it looks as though they will lose votes to the Tories, I’m going to brave and say that will apply even up North where they made huge inroads last time round. They no longer have Nigel Farage, the man who attracted all their publicity nor does it seem to have the financial support of Arron Banks or even its reason for being – Brexit! Which is bizarrely now the firm territory of the Tories, despite the fact that almost 60% of Tory MPs voted Remain back in in June last year (quite a turnaround – not that I’m cynical).
Whilst most of the hardened so-called Remoaners tend to be from the left, May is well aware that those on the right account for around a fifth of the voting public and she will fight to hold on to them. There’s no doubt that she will spend the next seven weeks making sure they are pandered to. Some will jump ship to the Lib Dems, but most will stay put.
This time round the SNP haven’t got the momentum of the Scottish independence vote and the general public may even be a little Sturgeon weary. However, they will still win the majority of their seats but not in such a runaway fashion. I can’t see Labour giving them much of a run for their money but the Lib Dems have a chance and the Tories may even nab a couple!
The Green they won’t hold much presence outside Brighton! Enough said!
So ultimately the Tories will make the most gains probably to the score of 375 seats (up from the current 330), giving them a 100 seat majority. Lib Dems, will gain the disillusioned Remainers to move well over the 30 seat mark (up from their current 9). Labour are likely to slip below 200 seats (a fall from their current 229) and the SNP could well lose at least 4 seats to fall below 50.